Consumers in the West End of London are anticipated to spend £1.7 billion this festive season, marking a 3.2% increase from last year. This forecast comes from the New West End Company (NWEC), which represents businesses in this key shopping area of central London.
However, UK consumer confidence remains low, resulting in a modest 1.6% expected growth in domestic festive spending. In contrast, international spending is projected to rise by 5.8%, fueled by an influx of overseas visitors.
This uptick in spending occurs despite the lingering effects of the previous government’s decision to end tax-free shopping for tourists. The current government has not indicated plans to reinstate this benefit. Recent NWEC data revealed that the loss of tax-free shopping cost West End retailers £220 million in the first half of 2024 and £400 million for the entire year of 2023.
The NWEC’s forecast highlights that festive spending is expected to peak on the weekend of December 7-8, with consumer expenditure estimated between £40 million and £50 million that weekend alone.
The prediction is informed by new economic modeling, which indicates that flight bookings to London for the festive period are already 11% higher than in 2023. Notably, visitors from the Gulf are up by 26%, followed by a 20% increase from China and a 19% rise from the US.
This festive surge follows a strong year for UK tourism, with international visitors to London increasing by 9% year-to-date, bringing considerable spending power.
The peak weekend will also coincide with a partnership between the NWEC and Great Ormond Street Hospital Charity (GOSH Charity) on December 7, designated as a “Big Day of JOY.” This event will transform Oxford Street into a vibrant hub of festive activities, featuring on-street entertainment and in-store experiences.
Regarding spending trends, domestic expenditure is expected to grow steadily from November onward. In contrast, international spending is anticipated to experience a more significant surge, peaking in the final week of Christmas trading, which begins December 16.
Additionally, the West End is expected to see a last-minute gift rush over the weekend of December 21-22. As shoppers seek last-minute gifts and stocking fillers, categories such as jewelry and watches, consumer electronics, and health and beauty products are likely to see their highest sales days of the festive period during this weekend.
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